The last few days have been hectic in the world of AI. Introspecting on how things are unfolding at present in public, private, and commercial markets, where AI is right now is giving me major mid-90s telecom boom vibes.
Hyperscalers continue to raise huge $$$
1/ Microsoft did a sort of acqui-hire of Inflection AI for $650Mn via an interesting licensing deal structure. Given that Inflection was one of the high-flying foundational model startups and had raised $1.3Bn from Microsoft and Nvidia (cash + cloud credits) at a valuation of $4Bn in June last year, it’s unclear whether this is a good or bad outcome for employees and investors. Although, going by this tweet from Reid Hoffman where he mentions “good future upside”, looks like shareholders got some sort of equity package from this deal.

2/ Amazon concluded its initially committed $4Bn investment in Anthropic by investing the second tranche of $2.75Bn. Am assuming like other hyper scaler deals, this is a mix of cash and cloud credits. As per CNBC, this tranche was done at the first tranche’s valuation of $18.4Bn. The press release from Amazon hinted at deep integrations between both platforms, with Anthropic using AWS as its primary cloud provider internally for product development while also offering the latest generations of Claude-3 foundational models to AWS customers via Amazon Bedrock (a fully managed service for LLMs).
3/ As per The Information, Canadian pension fund PSP Investments is about to co-lead a fresh round of financing in Cohere at a ~$5Bn valuation. The company’s last round was at a ~$2.1Bn valuation last year, and given it’s reportedly at a $22Mn ARR currently, this is a rich revenue multiple to pay. Based on my conversations with BigTech AI operators, Cohere is significantly lagging Anthropic in terms of foundational model capabilities.
The current phase of AI seems to be like the beginning of the telecom boom in the mid-90s
Personally, I am finding it hard to predict which of the current foundational model hyperscalers and AI-first application companies will survive. Further, given the inflated valuations these deals are being done at, barring logo grabbing, I don’t see how investors can make outsized venture returns in these deals.
In parallel, while meeting super-early AI companies in categories like dev tools, security, and deep domain applications, I am struggling to see a clear right-to-win for a majority of them. Given data and distribution advantages of incumbent products both in Enterprise and Consumer, it’s unclear which seemingly-white spaces are actually viable startup opportunities.
However, amidst these struggles as a venture investor, I am feeling good about one hypothesis – all this capital going into infra and foundational model companies is actually building capacity for the next generation of enduring AI products to be built. This is quite similar to the role that in hindsight, the telecom boom of the 90s ended up playing for the adoption of the Internet.
There is an excellent Fabricated Knowledge post outlining the history of the telecom bubble and its comparisons with AI today. I especially loved this insight:

As the Telecommunications Act of 1996 opened up the telecom sector to competition, a host of new entrants came in to become ISPs. They were followed by companies like Cisco, Ciena, Lucent, Nortel, and others who were desperate to sell networking equipment to these telecom companies.
Comparing this to today’s AI landscape, cloud providers seem to be similar to telecom companies, while semiconductor companies selling chips to these cloud providers are like the networking equipment companies eg. Cisco.
Also, during this boom, telecom capex was unlike ever seen before. As per the earlier cited post, just in the year 2000, capital spending by publicly traded telecom service providers was at an astonishing ~$120Bn (~$213Bn in today’s dollar terms).
This telecom boom capex is one of the largest capital bases ever built in such a short amount of time. I can see the same vibes in the amount of dollars going into AI chips, infra, and foundational models today.
Btw, one more learning from the telecom boom is how these flywheels become even stronger as the adoption of new tech starts reflecting in productivity gains. Here are some interesting excerpts on this from the Fabricated Knowledge post:


As this telecom boom was unfolding, LTCM blew up and therefore, the Fed ended up cutting rates in 1998 to avoid negative ripple effects. This is like adding tons of gasoline to a raging fire, ultimately leading up to a massive dotcom bubble.
Cut to today, as AI continues to drive massive private market investments while public markets continue to rip, the Fed is still talking about 3 rate cuts being on the cards for this year. Sounds familiar? 1998-99 and 2020-21 vibes anyone?
Looking ahead…
If I play out the AI cycle like the 90s telecom boom, we might only be at the beginning stages of a multi-year bull cycle, similar to say 1995-96 (perhaps the launch of ChatGPT is similar to the Netscape IPO?).
Investments into the buildout of AI infra could run into trillions of dollars. In parallel, it seems the public markets have already started pricing in some of the future promises of AI. Going by the telecom boom, this pricing-in of future expectations could significantly accelerate for several years from hereon, driving stocks of both the telecom service equivalents (Cloud providers) as well as the networking equipment equivalents (Nvidia and perhaps any new entrants into chip manufacturing?).
That all this is happening in a higher-interest rate environment is a critical point. If for any reason (economic, geopolitical, or otherwise) the Fed starts cutting rates (which they are publicly saying they will), this could provide a major kicker into an already accelerating bull market.
So, we can reasonably posit an oncoming AI bull market for the next few (at least 3-5) years. Ultimately, like all bull markets, it will transform into a bubble, which will then peak and eventually crash. If you look at the Internet wave, the massive telecom capex of the 90s ultimately enabled the rise of enduring Web 1.0 companies like Google and Facebook, but only after the dotcom crash. Hence, I tweeted this yesterday:

What do you think?
Bonus Section: Commentary On Sequoia Capital’s AI Ascent 2024
As I was trying to make sense of recent AI funding developments, I chanced upon the just-released videos from Sequoia Capital’s AI Ascent 2024. I found these points from the keynote particularly interesting:
1/ If we draw parallels with the Cloud wave, in 2010, the entire global software TAM was ~$350Bn, of which Cloud was a tiny ~$6Bn sliver. Cut to 2023, the global TAM has grown to ~650Bn but more importantly, Cloud has grown to a ~$400Bn large piece of this pie (~40% CAGR over 15 years).
The starting pie for AI is not just software products, but also services that can be automated. So the hypothesis is that the starting pie for AI is ~$10Tn.
2/ The “Why Now” for AI is really strong, wherein a set of additive waves, starting from semiconductors in the 60s to Cloud and Mobile in the 2000s, has brought us to this stage. The ingredients to take AI from research to commercial applications are all there today.

Personally, I feel Sam Altman created the ‘iPod’ moment for AI by taking the power of AI to everyday users via a step-change ChatGPT product. In parallel, Jensen Huang should get shared credits for this catalytic moment given Nvidia’s rapid progress on giving chips more power at smaller form factors and hopefully over the next few years, making compute considerably cheaper and easier to access.
3/ In the last Cloud and Mobile transition waves, a host of new categories were created and new leaders were born in each of them. For AI, most of the major categories – (a) Infra, (b) Security, (c) Data, (d) Developer, and (e) Apps, are open right now. Hence, a massive opportunity for new category leaders to be created.
Interestingly, by depicting the white spaces this way, Sequoia also seems to hint that the Infra category is likely to be dominated by BigTech incumbents in chips and cloud. I am also reading the sub-text that Sequoia, in a way, views hyperscalers like Anthropic to be embedded within the existing cloud ecosystems (and hence, no separate logos depicted).

4/ Sequoia estimates that Generative AI companies are clocking in ~$3Bn in annual revenues in aggregate at present. As a comparison, SaaS took 10 years to get to this aggregate revenue scale as an industry, something that AI has achieved in almost the first year out of the gate.

5/ One of the early signals that AI is a real transformative wave is the sheer traction that the early products are getting across both Enterprise and Consumer.

6/ Over the last year, a majority of the capital has gone into the foundational model companies. In the Web 1.0 wave, the Application companies that came later in the cycle (eg. Google) captured the most value. The current uneven distribution of funding indicates that the Applications layer in AI hasn’t even gotten out of the stables yet.

7/ The usage numbers of AI-first products are still way behind incumbents. Eg. the median DAU/MAU ratio of AI-first products is a mere ~14%, compared to ~51% for incumbent products. This indicates that AI adoption is still in its infancy.

It’s encouraging to see that the ability of foundational models is on a continuous upward trend. At some point, this will translate into product capabilities that meet the expectations of users, which will then eventually reflect in better usage and retention numbers.

8/ I loved this slide that showed how when the iPhone was launched, the first generation of apps were either gimmicky or basic utilities. It wasn’t until a few years later that companies learned how to harness the capabilities of the iPhone to build enduring products.
Reasoning by analogy, we should expect that it will take a few more years (though perhaps a smaller number than previous waves?) for enduring AI applications to emerge.

9/ Sequoia is calling AI primarily a “productivity revolution”, similar to farm mechanization. At a macro level, this should bring down the costs of doing any task or delivering services, creating a strong deflationary force in areas like education and healthcare that have historically seen a perpetual rise in costs.


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