On Who Really Shows Up When It Matters

Support at critical moments rarely comes from where we expect. Familiarity, expectations, and timing often shape who really shows up.

I have observed this weird phenomenon across both my professional and personal lives. In fact, it keeps surfacing every year or so, and therefore, I am compelled to blog about it today. Here’s how I would describe it:

At every important turning point in my life, where I desperately need a few (what I would consider) extremely close relationships to step up for me, almost all of them have failed to show up.

But at the same time, a few connections, whom I don’t have any significant shared history with and wouldn’t consider “close” by any stretch, end up stepping in and backing me at these key moments.

It has happened so many times now that I feel this is some random rule of nature that should have a name. Here are some personal examples:

  • When I moved to the Bay Area in 2014, having never studied in the US, with no job in hand, and with literally 2 bags, the person who gave me what turned out to be one of the most significant breaks in my career was…the then-husband of my wife’s ex-colleague.
  • One of my most important backers, who was an extremely small angel in my startup but ended up becoming a key influencer in both my decision to come back into venture as well as a major tangible supporter in many ways since then, is the husband of the 1st cousin of one of my past venture collaborators (interestingly, I lost touch with the original person who connected us many years back).
  • While we as a family were going through challenges on multiple fronts during the pandemic years and hit several low points, the people who saved us were not our oldest friends but a family we met through our older son’s first daycare.
  • The person who ended up giving what turned out to be an incredibly strong referral to my wife at Google more than 8 years back was someone I had overlapped with at a startup for barely 3 months and had no direct work history with.

I have many other examples that are unfolding as we speak, and which I hope to add to this list after a few years.

I don’t know if you have experienced something similar in your lives, but I have been thinking hard for at least a year now about why this happens repeatedly. Here are a few underlying things that I have noticed:

1/ Familiarity bias – when people have been too close to you over an extended period, they see all sides, moods, emotions, and fallacies in your personality. Because of this, I feel they end up subconsciously discounting your skills on many occasions.

I see this play out in venture all the time. Existing investors usually see the sausage being made, and therefore, are often more pessimistic on a portfolio company’s prospects compared to new investors evaluating the same opportunity.

For those who understand Hindi, there is a grandma’s saying on this phenomenon – “घर की मुर्गी दाल बराबर”.

2/ Expectations bias – humans have a tendency to keep very high expectations of people they consider close, especially if they are family or have been known for a long time. So whatever these relationships do at the crunch moments, it’s perhaps impossible for them to live up to the high bar they are being held to.

3/ Timing – the quality & extent of human collaboration depends a lot on timing. Where are each of the subjects in their own life arcs? What is their mind space looking like then? What is the macro environment in which the collaboration is playing out?

In almost all situations, humans are essentially acting in their own self-interest first. So, while to the “receiver” (me in the initial examples), it ends up being a game-changing intervention, the act is also delivering a major utility for the “giver”.

A parallel idea is seen in a key principle of marketing strategy – the job is not to convince uninterested prospects, but to be in the consideration set of leads when they are actively looking to buy a product. Sounds like a simple idea from a b-school course or Kotler’s book, but I have only learned its power at this stage of my career.

Translating this to the core idea of this post, best collaborations happen when both givers and receivers are in the market, and are a great fit for each other’s needs at that specific point in time. This has nothing to do with how close the people have been previously.

Given that I have now observed this core phenomenon, I am trying to do a few small things differently so that I can be on the right side of this rule of nature more often and with a much lower emotional toll. These include:

  • Instead of meeting the same set of people all the time, strive to continuously meet new folks and add them to an ever-growing funnel of relationships.
  • Be present and show up strongly even in first meetings with new people.
  • Following my guru Charlie Munger’s age-old advice, have lower expectations of close relationships and replace that emotion with gratitude that they choose to include me in their lives.
  • For major turning points every couple of years, instead of just repeatedly putting “asks” in front of the same set of people, cast a wider net out into the universe using a combination of cold outreach and warm intros.

Anyway, I know this post is a bit all over the place. In fact, I was struggling to even think of a title for it. But these ideas are from my lived experience, and are important enough to be put in front of you.

Munger Musings – Notes from DJCO Shareholders Meeting 2023

As a long-time student of Charlie Munger, I eagerly wait for his musings at the Daily Journal Shareholders Meeting every year. This time was no different! Here are some of my notes capturing Charlie’s wisdom at the DJCO 2023 meeting:

  1. Importance of under-served markets in software

Both Munger & Buffet are big believers in moats. Having witnessed the natural creative destruction of even the best companies like Kodak & Xerox, they understand the power of competition & what it can do to long term returns of investors.

Munger spoke about how the software business of DJCO, which offers a solution to automate legal courts, is operating in a large yet unaddressed market that incumbent software companies hate. It’s an unsexy business that has long sales cycles & as Munger himself said – “it will be a long grind”.

However, these same reasons also limit competition in the space. Munger believes that this combination of a large, underserved TAM + low competition is likely to drive superior long-term returns, as long as DJCO shareholders are prepared to ride through the grind & hold over the long term.

In my view, this idea also has some interesting insights for venture investors in the enterprise software/ SaaS space. Too often, investors start chasing the hot market of the year without realizing that a space that is obviously popular will end up attracting disproportionate competition & investor $$. And as history shows us, too much competition in a market drives down returns for everyone.

Therefore, there is some merit in looking at startups going after unsexy or under-served verticals. These non-obvious nooks & crannies often hold the most potential for contrarian-and-right bets.

2. Holding is tax-efficient

Munger spoke about how he hates to sell his holdings as California would straight-up take 40% away in taxes. As he went on a brief rant about how California is driving businesses away with its tax policies, the underlying insight stayed with me – how holding securities over the long term is a brilliant strategy for tax efficiency. A simple rule that anyone from Berkshire & DJCO to common folks like you and me can follow in our lives.

As the likes of Robinhood have leveraged the excess liquidity environment over the last several years to create a generation of young day traders, many of them don’t realize how tax-inefficient frequent trading is.

3. #1 bias is denial

When asked what the #1 behavioral bias is, Munger said “denial”. And it’s so true. Often times, when the present reality is too brutal to bear, our brain tricks us into living in a delusion. While this stems from an evolutionary survival mechanism our brains have developed, taking major decisions under this denial state can cause havoc in our lives.

Proactively trying to see & live in one’s reality at any point in time is the best way to behave rationally. If one thinks of all of grandma’s wisdom handed down to us in popular sayings (eg. “live within your means”), they all urge us to recognize & live within our own realities.

4. Betting big when the right opportunity knocks

I loved this sentence from Munger – “What % of your networth should you put in a stock if it’s an absolute cinch? The answer is 100%”.

While I am positive that Charlie wouldn’t like this to be construed as a stance against diversification, which is important for almost all portfolios in varying degrees, the spirit of this sentence is this – a few times in your life, you will come across a no-brainer opportunity with massive asymmetric upside. It will happen very infrequently, but when it knocks on your door & you are convinced about it, go all in & bet really big. Over a lifetime, these bets will drive the majority of your returns, financial or otherwise.

If there is one thing that separates the likes of Buffet & Munger from other investors, it’s the mindset of betting really big when the odds are extraordinarily in your favor. During the meeting, Munger mentioned how Ben Graham made 50% of his money from just 1 stock – GEICO. Also, he illustrated the importance of power laws by sharing how Berkshire’s initial $270Mn investment in BYD (made in 2008) is now worth $8Bn!

PS: I have previously riffed on this idea in my post ‘Only need to get a few right‘.

5. On using leverage

Munger admitted to having used leverage to buy Alibaba stock in the DJCO portfolio. When asked why he violated his own rule (his famous quote being “there are only 3 ways a smart person can go broke – liquor, ladies & leverage”), Munger responded with another fascinating quote:

The young man knows the rules. The old man knows the exceptions.

Charlie Munger

The insight behind this is something I say a lot – context is everything! Rules & checklists are great for driving overall discipline & avoiding foolish behavior but as Munger demonstrates, it’s not wise to become a prisoner of your own rules. With experience, one should learn to spot exceptions & when the context is favorable, be bold enough to break the rules.

6. On long-term economic trends

While both Munger & Buffet generally hate to predict macro trends, Charlie mentioned a few interesting observations:

-Inflation is here to stay over the long run, given most democratic govts. globally have shown an ever-increasing inclination to print money.

-Most govts. across the world are going to be increasingly anti-business, with tax rates steadily going up.

-If one looks at economic history, the best way to grow GDP per capita is to have property in private hands & make exchange easy so economic transactions happen (the essence of capitalism).

If these trends are even directionally true, it makes sense to hold assets that can fight inflation (eg. stocks), as well as invest in a tax-efficient way, over the long term. Developing an investor mindset that can operate in a high-inflation environment will be important.

7. The playbook for success in life – Rationality + Patience + Deferred Gratification

When asked the thing that’s helped him the most in life, Munger said – rationality! Loved this line from him:

If you are constantly not crazy, you have a huge advantage over 90% of people.

Charlie Munger

To significantly improve the odds in your favor, Munger prescribes combining 3 things:

-Rationality (which is often, just doing the obvious)

-Patience (take advantage of compounding)

-Deferred gratification (live within means, save & invest)

Like most things Munger says, the above ideas are simple & profound, yet hard to consistently follow for most people as their biases come in the way.

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